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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
10
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
3
5
7
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
10
10
12
25
47
0
0
0
0
12
15
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
20
33
67
7
13
13
33
0
0
0
0
20
33
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
9
18
18
21
44
82
0
0
0
0
21
26
53
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.33 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 3.13 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.035 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.182 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.100 0.240 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.053 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.006 -0.010 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.600 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.745 0.000
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00