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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
5
8
0
3
2
5
1
3
2
6
4
6
9
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
5
8
8
12
23
43
1
3
2
6
12
15
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
0
26
42
0
16
11
26
5
16
11
32
21
32
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
9
14
14
21
40
75
2
5
4
11
21
26
53
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.83 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 2.87 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.147 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.158 true Kuipers skill score: 0.024
threat score:
0.333 0.375 0.154
threat score:
0.176 0.261 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.180 0.221 -0.083
equitable threat score:
0.086 0.020 -0.038
probability of detection:
0.750 0.500 0.222
probability of detection:
0.250 0.800 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.400 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.721 0.667
samples: 19 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00