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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
0
1
7
8
1
3
1
5
1
6
9
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
11
10
28
49
1
3
1
5
12
15
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
6
19
0
6
44
50
6
19
6
31
6
38
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
19
18
49
86
2
5
2
9
21
26
53
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.193
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.33 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 3.27 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.211
true Heidke skill score: -0.400 true Heidke skill score: -0.126
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.211
true Kuipers skill score: -0.464 true Kuipers skill score: -0.148
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.185 0.029
equitable threat score:
-0.049 -0.200 -0.178
equitable threat score:
-0.044 -0.070 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.111
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.796 0.800
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00