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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
6
10
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
2
2
9
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
6
10
7
17
23
47
0
0
0
0
9
19
29
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
15
46
77
0
0
23
23
0
0
0
0
15
15
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
11
18
12
30
40
82
0
0
0
0
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 1.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 2.47 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.051
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.118 0.347 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.055 -0.102 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.040 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.638 0.000
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00