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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
10
0
1
4
5
0
0
0
0
2
4
9
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
10
7
16
24
47
0
0
0
0
9
19
29
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
20
33
67
0
7
27
33
0
0
0
0
13
27
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
9
18
12
28
42
82
0
0
0
0
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 1.25 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 2.47 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.027 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.040 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.200 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.118 0.320 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.077 -0.050 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.010 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.842 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.660 0.000
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00