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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
0
3
2
5
0
5
1
6
1
10
8
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
8
12
23
43
0
5
1
6
9
19
29
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
26
42
0
16
11
26
0
26
5
32
5
53
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
9
14
14
21
40
75
0
9
2
11
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 0.50 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 2.26 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.121
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.056 true Kuipers skill score: -0.135
threat score:
0.125 0.250 0.077
threat score:
0.062 0.240 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.076 0.039 -0.146
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.065 -0.066
probability of detection:
1.000 0.300 0.125
probability of detection:
0.111 0.632 0.034
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.400 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.721 0.833
samples: 19 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00