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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
0
7
8
0
5
0
5
1
5
10
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
9
14
26
49
0
5
0
5
9
19
29
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
19
19
6
0
44
50
0
31
0
31
6
31
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
16
25
46
86
0
9
0
9
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.60 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.58 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.571 true Heidke skill score: -0.142
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.715 true Kuipers skill score: -0.155
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.259 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.049 -0.238 -0.263
equitable threat score:
-0.041 -0.062 -0.081
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.737 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.714 1.000
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00