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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
7
10
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
3
1
9
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
7
10
16
15
16
47
0
0
0
0
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
0
54
77
0
8
15
23
0
0
0
0
23
8
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
12
18
28
26
28
82
0
0
0
0
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.33 3.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 3.13 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.140 true Heidke skill score: 0.056
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.244 true Kuipers skill score: 0.061
threat score:
0.300 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.115 0.319 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.090 0.278 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.076 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.158 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.681 0.000
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00