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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
3
10
1
0
4
5
0
0
0
0
4
4
7
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
3
10
16
11
20
47
0
0
0
0
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
27
20
67
7
0
27
33
0
0
0
0
27
27
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
7
5
18
28
19
35
82
0
0
0
0
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 1.25 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 3.13 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.104 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.273 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.115 0.216 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.040 -0.174 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.035 0.000
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.158 0.733 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.766 0.000
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00