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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
6
8
1
1
3
5
4
1
1
6
6
3
10
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
6
8
14
13
16
43
4
1
1
6
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
32
42
5
5
16
26
21
5
5
32
32
16
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
11
14
25
23
28
75
7
2
2
11
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.158 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 1.67 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 2.87 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.263 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.277 true Heidke skill score: -0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.263 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.306 true Kuipers skill score: -0.037
threat score:
0.077 0.143 0.067
threat score:
0.038 0.289 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.146 0.034 -0.182
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.050 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.167 0.333 0.100
probability of detection:
0.053 0.867 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.800 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.698 0.833
samples: 19 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00