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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
1
6
8
2
1
2
5
3
2
11
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
17
14
18
49
2
1
2
5
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
19
19
6
6
38
50
13
6
13
31
19
13
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
30
25
32
86
4
2
4
9
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 4.00 0.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.27 0.22
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.182 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.262 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.280 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.103 0.000 -0.136
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.030 -0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.182
probability of detection:
0.000 0.933 0.087
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.714 0.600
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00