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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
0
10
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
6
7
2
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
0
10
19
18
11
48
0
0
0
0
24
23
11
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
33
0
67
7
13
13
33
0
0
0
0
40
47
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
0
17
33
31
19
83
0
0
0
0
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.467 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.71 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 2.09 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.077 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.074 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.455 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.172 0.340 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.143 -0.043 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.030 0.000
probability of detection:
0.833 0.286 0.000
probability of detection:
0.208 0.783 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.600 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.625 0.000
samples: 15 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 25.86 %coverage: 100.00