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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
1
8
3
2
0
5
4
1
1
6
10
7
2
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
1
8
17
18
9
44
4
1
1
6
24
23
11
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
21
5
42
16
11
0
26
21
5
5
32
53
37
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
7
2
14
29
31
16
76
7
2
2
10
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.379
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 0.71 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.91 0.55
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: 0.069
true Heidke skill score: -0.056 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: 0.069
true Kuipers skill score: -0.063 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.200 0.200 0.143
threat score:
0.103 0.367 0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.112 0.019 0.058
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.017 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.300 0.286 0.500
probability of detection:
0.125 0.783 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.600 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.591 0.833
samples: 19 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 32.76 %coverage: 100.00