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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
3
5
0
8
2
1
2
5
5
6
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
22
22
6
50
2
1
2
5
24
23
11
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
19
19
19
31
0
50
13
6
13
31
31
38
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
38
38
10
86
3
2
3
9
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.414
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 1.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.17 0.45
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.121
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.055
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.121
true Kuipers skill score: 0.141 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.000 0.556 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.431 0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.133 0.333 0.068
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.070 0.081
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.375 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.560 0.600
samples: 16 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 27.59 %coverage: 100.00