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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
4
10
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
7
1
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
4
10
15
17
15
47
0
0
0
0
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
46
0
31
77
8
8
8
23
0
0
0
0
54
8
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
7
18
26
30
26
82
0
0
0
0
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.538 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 3.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.48 2.76 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.308 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.188 true Heidke skill score: 0.135
Kuipers skill score: 0.308 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.191 true Kuipers skill score: 0.140
threat score:
0.545 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.240 0.362 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.110 0.278 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.109 0.090 0.000
probability of detection:
0.857 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.286 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.638 0.000
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00