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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
1
10
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
8
4
3
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
1
10
14
15
18
47
0
0
0
0
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
13
7
67
7
13
13
33
0
0
0
0
53
27
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
2
18
25
26
32
82
0
0
0
0
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 1.25 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.48 2.76 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.280 true Heidke skill score: 0.109
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.257 true Kuipers skill score: 0.114
threat score:
0.636 0.286 0.000
threat score:
0.292 0.306 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.294 0.118 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.163 0.028 0.000
probability of detection:
0.875 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.882 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.600 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.681 0.000
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00