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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
8
3
1
1
5
2
2
1
5
9
7
2
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
8
15
11
18
44
2
2
1
5
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
0
44
17
6
6
28
11
11
6
28
50
39
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
0
14
26
19
32
77
4
4
2
9
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 0.71 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.59 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.047 true Kuipers skill score: -0.046
threat score:
0.308 0.091 0.167
threat score:
0.160 0.220 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.104 0.082
equitable threat score:
0.048 -0.058 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.444 0.143 0.500
probability of detection:
0.190 0.647 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.800 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.750 0.800
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00