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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
4
4
0
8
1
2
2
5
5
6
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
20
15
14
49
1
2
2
5
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
19
19
25
25
0
50
6
13
13
31
31
38
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
35
26
25
86
2
4
4
9
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 1.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.88 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.047 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.294 0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.133 0.143 0.068
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.011 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.105
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.694 0.600
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00