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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
4
10
1
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
6
3
4
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
4
10
13
13
21
47
0
0
0
0
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
8
31
77
8
15
0
23
0
0
0
0
46
23
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
7
18
23
23
37
82
0
0
0
0
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.538 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 3.36 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.308 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.220 true Heidke skill score: 0.078
Kuipers skill score: 0.308 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.204 true Kuipers skill score: 0.089
threat score:
0.455 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.217 0.271 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.060 0.395 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.093 0.040 0.000
probability of detection:
0.833 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.278 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.723 0.000
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00