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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
2
10
0
1
4
5
0
0
0
0
7
2
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
1
2
10
11
13
23
47
0
0
0
0
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
7
13
67
0
7
27
33
0
0
0
0
47
13
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
2
4
18
19
23
40
82
0
0
0
0
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.533 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 2.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 3.36 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.300 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.276 true Heidke skill score: 0.125
Kuipers skill score: 0.300 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.294 true Kuipers skill score: 0.144
threat score:
0.700 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.333 0.271 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.438 0.062 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.215 0.040 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.389 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.723 0.000
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00