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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
2
2
1
5
2
0
3
5
7
4
7
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
13
12
19
44
2
0
3
5
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
11
17
44
11
11
6
28
11
0
17
28
39
22
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
5
14
23
21
33
77
4
0
5
9
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 1.25 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 3.14 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.155 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.157 true Kuipers skill score: 0.067
threat score:
0.250 0.286 0.333
threat score:
0.130 0.261 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.151 0.150
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.034 0.033
probability of detection:
0.429 0.500 0.429
probability of detection:
0.167 0.857 0.120
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.600 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.727 0.400
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00