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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
4
2
2
8
1
1
3
5
5
3
8
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
17
13
19
49
1
1
3
5
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
19
19
25
13
13
50
6
6
19
31
31
19
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
30
23
33
86
2
2
5
9
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.312 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 2.67 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 3.50 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.031 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.006 true Heidke skill score: 0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.031 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.006 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.260 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.133 0.067 0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.047 0.025 0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.375
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.120
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.735 0.400
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00