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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
3
10
1
1
3
5
0
0
0
0
5
4
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
3
10
15
12
20
47
0
0
0
0
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
20
20
67
7
7
20
33
0
0
0
0
33
27
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
5
5
18
26
21
35
82
0
0
0
0
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.25 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 3.13 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.032 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.034 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
0.364 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.160 0.240 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.087 -0.050 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.031 -0.010 0.000
probability of detection:
0.800 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.211 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.745 0.000
samples: 15 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 26.32 %coverage: 100.00