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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
1
3
1
5
1
1
3
5
3
6
9
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
17
12
15
44
1
1
3
5
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
28
44
6
17
6
28
6
6
17
28
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
9
14
30
21
26
77
2
2
5
9
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.389 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.83 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 2.93 0.22
Heidke skill score: 0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.120 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.136 true Kuipers skill score: -0.007
threat score:
0.100 0.375 0.273
threat score:
0.038 0.255 0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.038 0.211 0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.012 0.043
probability of detection:
0.333 0.500 0.333
probability of detection:
0.053 0.800 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.400 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.727 0.400
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00