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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
2
3
3
8
1
1
3
5
3
5
8
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
18
13
18
49
1
1
3
5
19
15
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
13
19
13
19
19
50
6
6
19
31
19
31
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
5
32
23
32
86
2
2
5
9
33
26
40
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.60 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.27 0.22
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.042 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.044 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.255 0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.103 0.067 0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.003 0.043
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.375
probability of detection:
0.000 0.867 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.625 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.735 0.400
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00