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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
3
0
2
5
1
1
3
5
5
3
10
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
5
8
14
15
15
44
1
1
3
5
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
28
44
17
0
11
28
6
6
17
28
28
17
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
9
14
25
26
26
77
2
2
5
9
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.60 1.67 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.44 0.22
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.151 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.174 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.083 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.043 0.319 0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.125 -0.116 0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.060 0.033 0.043
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.300
probability of detection:
0.062 0.833 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.659 0.400
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00