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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
2
2
4
8
2
1
2
5
4
5
7
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
14
15
20
49
2
1
2
5
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
6
19
13
13
25
50
13
6
13
31
25
31
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
25
26
35
86
4
2
4
9
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.60 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.72 0.22
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.136 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.139 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.182 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.288 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.120 -0.059 -0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.046 -0.013 -0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.286
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.087
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.694 0.600
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00