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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
19
11
24
54
1
0
0
1
21
11
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
25
50
0
0
25
25
25
0
0
25
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
33
19
42
95
2
0
0
2
37
19
44
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.211
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 4.91 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.184
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.184
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.011
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.045 0.204 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.012 0.013 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.796 1.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00