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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
2
0
6
8
3
0
2
5
6
0
10
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
17
11
21
49
3
0
2
5
21
11
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
13
19
13
0
38
50
19
0
13
31
38
0
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
4
5
30
19
37
86
5
0
4
9
37
19
44
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 4.45 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.106 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.034
threat score:
0.125 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.043 0.224 0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.000 -0.114
equitable threat score:
-0.005 0.039 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.048 1.000 0.080
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.776 0.600
samples: 16 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 28.07 %coverage: 100.00