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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
15
19
21
55
0
0
0
0
16
19
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
26
33
37
96
0
0
0
0
28
33
39
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.89 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.029
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.029
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.059 0.345 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.018 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.062 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.655 0.000
samples: 2 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 3.51 %coverage: 100.00