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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
20
16
17
53
0
1
0
1
20
18
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
50
75
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
25
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
5
35
28
30
93
0
2
0
2
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.94 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: -0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.055
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.291 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.048 -0.019 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.698 1.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00