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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
0
3
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
15
19
18
52
0
1
1
2
15
22
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
17
50
0
0
17
17
0
17
17
33
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
26
33
32
91
0
2
2
4
26
39
35
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.36 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.111 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.345 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.046 -0.031 0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.864 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.635 0.500
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00