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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
3
0
1
0
1
0
3
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
15
20
19
54
0
1
0
1
15
22
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
17
17
33
0
17
33
50
0
17
0
17
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
26
35
33
95
0
2
0
2
26
39
35
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.45 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.049
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.046
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.357 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 -0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.032 -0.024 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.909 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.630 1.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00