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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
1
2
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
10
20
22
52
1
1
0
2
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
17
33
50
0
0
17
17
17
17
0
33
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
5
18
35
39
91
2
2
0
4
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 2.36 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.440 true Heidke skill score: -0.042
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.041
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.370 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.143 -0.125 -0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.002 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.909 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.615 1.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00