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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
1
2
3
0
0
1
1
1
2
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
10
21
23
54
0
0
1
1
11
22
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
17
0
33
0
17
33
50
0
0
17
17
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
18
37
40
95
0
0
2
2
19
39
42
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.50 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.45 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.280 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.318 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.500 0.250 0.333
threat score:
0.083 0.382 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.053 0.005 0.025
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.333
probability of detection:
0.091 0.955 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.611 0.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00