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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
2
2
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
10
19
23
52
1
1
0
2
12
21
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
17
17
50
0
0
17
17
17
17
0
33
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
18
33
40
91
2
2
0
4
21
37
42
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.48 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.017
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.071 0.352 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.028 -0.005 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.083 0.905 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.635 1.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00