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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
12
20
24
56
0
0
0
0
12
21
24
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
0
33
0
33
33
67
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
21
35
42
98
0
0
0
0
21
37
42
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.67 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.023
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.351 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.017 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.643 0.000
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00