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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
21
19
16
56
0
0
0
0
21
19
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
33
0
33
67
0
0
0
0
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
37
33
28
98
0
0
0
0
37
33
30
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.95 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.661 0.000
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00