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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
13
18
23
54
0
0
1
1
14
18
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
25
50
25
0
0
25
0
0
25
25
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
23
32
40
95
0
0
2
2
25
32
44
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.067 0.333 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.035 0.026 0.023
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.071 1.000 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 0.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00