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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
12
18
24
54
1
0
0
1
14
18
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
25
50
0
0
25
25
25
0
0
25
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
21
32
42
95
2
0
0
2
25
32
44
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.067 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.035 0.026 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.071 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 1.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00