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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
12
18
23
53
1
0
0
1
14
18
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
50
75
0
0
0
0
25
0
0
25
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
4
5
21
32
40
93
2
0
0
2
25
32
44
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.94 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.029
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.062 0.340 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.035 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.071 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.660 1.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00