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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
20
16
19
55
0
0
0
0
21
17
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
50
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
35
28
33
96
0
0
0
0
37
30
33
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.24 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.004
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.045 0.286 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.010 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.941 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.709 0.000
samples: 2 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 3.51 %coverage: 100.00