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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
2
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
37
30
36
103
1
1
0
2
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
33
0
33
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
67
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
35
28
34
97
1
1
0
2
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.283
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.22 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.015 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.709 1.000
samples: 3 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 2.83 %coverage: 100.00