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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
18
17
18
53
0
0
0
0
20
17
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
4
7
32
30
32
93
0
0
0
0
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 3.12 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.047
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.091 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.029 0.032 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.100 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.679 0.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00