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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
18
17
18
53
2
0
0
2
20
17
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
50
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
32
30
32
93
4
0
0
4
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.12 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -1.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -1.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.333 0.000 -0.333
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.032 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.679 1.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00