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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
3
1
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
20
20
13
53
0
0
0
0
21
21
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
17
33
67
33
0
0
33
0
0
0
0
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
4
7
35
35
23
93
0
0
0
0
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 2.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.52 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.364 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.364 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.042 0.370 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.250 -0.125 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.021 0.014 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.623 0.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00