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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
18
20
13
51
0
0
0
0
21
21
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
17
33
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
4
11
32
35
23
89
0
0
0
0
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.43 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.056
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.053
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.125 0.385 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.036 0.036 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.143 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.608 0.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00