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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
1
0
1
3
0
0
3
3
1
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
18
21
13
52
3
0
0
3
21
21
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
0
17
0
17
50
0
0
50
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
32
37
23
91
5
0
0
5
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.48 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.304 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.318 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.250 1.000 -0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.056 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.596 1.000
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00