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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
15
18
23
56
0
0
0
0
16
18
23
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
100
0
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
0
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
26
32
40
98
0
0
0
0
28
32
40
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.11 0.00
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: nan true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.062 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.008 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.062 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.000
samples: 1 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 1.75 %coverage: 100.00