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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
2
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
18
20
55
0
0
2
2
17
18
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
0
0
33
0
0
67
67
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
32
35
96
0
0
4
4
30
32
39
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.06 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.048
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.327 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.058
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.000
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00